RSIgamers

Now that we are relatively deep into the current console generation, we thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the NPD sales data till now to see how they all stack up. We will go through a brief analysis of all the quarterly data and provide a report card for each console. Just to emphasize, this is NOT a report card on the relative merits of each console. This analysis is of pure, hard data. Sales of 100,000 are more than sales of 80,000 regardless of how you feel about each product. Basic mathematics. Now lets get down to business…

Note 1: All data used to generate these graphs has been taken from official NPD sales data reports for the United States. The NPD group is currently the most accurate form of centralized sales reporting made available to the public. There are some limitations (i.e. Wall-mart figures are not included), but its the best we have.
Note 2: For graphs below (with the exception of monthly market share data), the dim lines represent actual sales figures while the dark lines represent a trend line applied to those sales numbers.

Let’s start with the most basic report.

Raw Sales Data

No surprises here. The Wii takes off with a steadily rising trendline. The remaining console sales are pretty pale in comparison and staying relatively level. Still, there has to be more to this than the total Wii dominance.

Quarter to Quarter Change

This graph shows the percentage change in quarterly sales figures per console when compared to the previous quarter. Here we see the first sign that the Wii does not have complete dominance. Looking at the trendlines of the Wii (blue) and Xbox360 (red), we see that although both consoles have a steadily increasing quarterly sales growth, the Xbox360 seems to be growing at a slightly greater rate. The margin is probably not enough that we can call it a clear winner though. Unfortunately for Sony, the PS3 and PS2 have had a steadily declining quarter to quarter growth rate, despite having lower raw sales figures (lower raw sales make it easier to have high percentage growth). Also noteworthy is the sharp decline in sales growth for all consoles in Q1 2008. This quarter was the first full quarter in which the global financial crisis took place, which explains the decline.

Year over Year Change

The year to year growth data is a comparison of each quarter to the same quarter in the previous year (i.e. Q1 sales in 2009 compared to Q1 sales in 2008). This graph allows us to look at the data after removing seasonal effects such as exceptionally high sales in the fourth quarter. Once again we see a similar story as the Quarter-Quarter data. The Sony consoles have been declining in sales in every quarter when compared to previous years. In recent months the Playstation 3 even entered negative growth for Q4 2008 and Q1 2009. By contrast, the Wii has had virtually unmoving year on year change, with an average of 50% growth across the board, impressive. The Xbox360 on the other hand has enjoyed increasing year over year growth in all quarters for the entire period, to the point where it enjoys almost the same level of growth as the Wii. Whether this trend will continue is another matter. The Playstation2 is in steady decline, but this is expected due to its age. No-one expected it to be a chart topper last year.

Market Share

So the Wii has had ridiculously high raw console sales numbers. However, when we looked at quarter to quarter and year to year growth the Xbox360 shows some signs of competition (granted, not much). Much talk has been made over whether or not the Wii will continue its dominance. This category is where we can really see the extent of their stranglehold of sales. The above graph is not a representation of the Wii’s total market share. The data tells us that every month the Wii sells a greater percentage of all consoles sold. The Wii is not only dominating raw sales, it’s extending its lead drastically. We can clearly see from the data above that the industry has been growing, total console sales are up. However, when you add in the data that the Wii’s monthly market share is increasing, and increasing at a relatively similar rate to the growth rate of the industry, we can reach the following conclusion. Virtually all growth in the industry is being driven by the Wii. Growth seen in the Xbox360 sales appears to have been market share taken directly away from the Playstation3 as growth in one has been met by a decline in the other.

Note: As a test of my last statement, I will put together another article along the same lines as the one above. Except this time, I will take the Wii out of the equation to see whether there is still overall growth in the industry, and to do a comparative analysis of the Xbox360 vs Playstation3. Stay tuned.

Note 2: The follow up referred to above can be found here: Console Sales - The Report Card Part 2